360彩票网

中钢协:2月国内市场钢材价格继续上升 后期将呈波动运行态势

  • 2017-05-25 点击: 3271

2017NIANYILAI,GUOJIAJIXUTUIJINGONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGE、JIADATAOTAILUOHOUCHANNENGLIDU,SHICHANGYUQIMINGXIANZENGQIANG,GANGJIAJIXUCHENGSHANGSHENGZOUSHI。HOUQISHOUCHANNENGSHIFANGHESHEHUIKUCUNGAOQIYINGXIANG,GANGJIANANYIDAFUSHANGZHANG,JIANGCHENGBODONGYUNXINGTAISHI。

YI、GUONEISHICHANGGANGCAIJIAGEJIXUSHANGSHENG,HUANBISHENGFUJIADA

360彩票网 2YUEMO,GANGTIEXIEHUICSPIZHONGGUOGANGCAIJIAGEZHISHUWEI106.22DIAN,HUANBISHANGSHENG6.35DIAN,SHENGFUWEI6.36%,JIAOSHANGYUESHENGFUJIADA6.00GEBAIFENDIAN;YUSHANGNIANTONGQIXIANGBISHANGSHENG46.18DIAN,SHENGFUWEI76.92%。(JIANXIATU)

CSPIZHONGGUOGANGCAIJIAGEZHISHUZOUSHITU


1、ZHANGBANCAIJIAGEJUNYOUSUOSHANGSHENG,ZHANGCAISHENGFUDAYUBANCAI

2YUEMO,CSPIZHANGCAIZHISHUWEI108.35DIAN,HUANBISHANGSHENG10.02DIAN,SHENGFUWEI10.19%,JIAOSHANGYUEJIADA9.44GEBAIFENDIAN;CSPIBANCAIZHISHUWEI107.54DIAN,HUANBISHANGSHENG2.97DIAN,SHENGFUWEI2.84%,HUANBIYOUJIANGZHUANSHENG;YUQUNIANTONGQIXIANGBI,ZHANGCAIZHISHUSHANGSHENG48.20DIAN,SHENGFUWEI80.13%;BANCAIZHISHUSHANGSHENG46.14DIAN,SHENGFUWEI75.15%。(JIANXIATU、XIABIAO)

360彩票网 CSPIGUONEIZHANGCAIHEBANCAIJIAGEZHISHUZOUSHITU

CSPIZHONGGUOGANGCAIJIAGEZHISHUBIANHUAQINGKUANGBIAO

项目

2月末

1月末

环比升降

幅度(%)

上年同期

同比升降

幅度(%)

综合指数

106.22

99.87

6.35

6.36

60.04

46.18

76.92

长材

108.35

98.33

10.02

10.19

60.15

48.20

80.13

板材

107.54

104.57

2.97

2.84

61.40

46.14

75.15

©2017.3 中钢协

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2、ZHUYAOGANGCAIPINZHONGJIAGEJUNYOUSUOSHANGSHENG

2YUEMO,ZAIGANGTIEXIEHUIJIANCEDEBADAGANGCAIPINZHONGZHONG,ZHANGCAIJIAGESHENGFUJIAODA,QIZHONGXIANCAI、LUOWENGANGHEJIAOGANGJIAGEHUANBIFENBIESHANGZHANG374YUAN/DUN、399YUAN/DUNHE308YUAN/DUN;LENGYABOBANJIAGEJIXUSHANGSHENG,HUANBISHANGSHENG97YUAN/DUN;ZHONGHOUBAN、REYAJUANBAN、DUXINBANHEREYAWUFENGGUANJIAGEYOUJIANGZHUANSHENG,FENBIEHUANBISHANGSHENG202YUAN/DUN、86YUAN/DUN、92YUAN/DUNHE184YUAN/DUN。(JIANXIABIAO)

360彩票网 ZHUYAOGANGCAIPINZHONGJIAGEJIZHISHUBIANHUAQINGKUANGBIAO(DANWEI:YUAN/DUN)

品种规格

2月末

1月末

价格升降

指数升降

升降幅%

价格

指数

价格

指数

本月

上月

高线6.5mm

3849

110.36

3475

99.62

374

10.74

10.78

1.48

螺纹钢(钢筋)16mm

3752

106.95

3353

95.59

399

11.36

11.88

1.56

角钢5#

3756

105.86

3448

97.18

308

8.68

8.93

0.69

中厚板20mm

3797

106.4

3595

100.73

202

5.67

5.63

-0.57

热轧卷板3.0mm

4031

105.03

3945

102.80

86

2.23

2.17

-0.05

冷轧薄板1.0mm

4892

103.91

4795

101.84

97

2.07

2.03

0.50

镀锌板0.5mm

5118

99.04

5026

97.25

92

1.79

1.84

-0.04

热轧无缝管219*10mm

4448

88.87

4264

85.20

184

3.67

4.31

-0.68

©2017.3 中钢协

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3、GANGCAIJIAGECHENGBODONGSHANGXINGZOUSHI

2YUEFEN,CSPIGUONEIGANGCAIJIAGEZONGHEZHISHUCHENGZHUZHOUSHANGXINGZOUSHI;JINRU3YUEFEN,DIYIZHOUJIXUSHANGSHENG,DIERZHOUXIAOFUHUIDIAO。(JIANXIABIAO)

CSPIGUONEIGANGCAIJIAGEZONGHEZHISHUGEZHOUBIANHUAQINGKUANGBIAO

CHUNJIECHUNJIE

品种

1月末

2

3

第一周

第二周

第三周

第四周

第一周

第二周

综合指数

99.87

春节

100.10

102.78

106.22

107.88

106.09

长材指数

98.33

春节

99.26

103.09

108.35

111.50

110.15

板材指数

104.57

春节

104.25

105.91

107.54

107.68

105.03

©2017.3 中钢协360彩票网

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4、ZHUYAOQUYUSHICHANGGANGCAIJIAGESHENGFUMINGXIANJIADA

JUGANGTIEXIEHUIJIANCE,2YUEFEN,QUANGUOGEQUYUSHICHANGGANGCAIJIAGECHUZHONGNANDIQUHUANBIYOUJIANGZHUANSHENGWAI,QITADIQUJIAGEJIXUSHANGSHENG,QIESHENGFUMINGXIANJIADA。QIZHONG:HUABEIDIQUSHENGFUJIAODA,HUANBISHANGSHENG6.64%;XINANDIQUGANGCAIJIAGESHENGFUJIAOXIAO,HUANBISHANGSHENG5.87%;DONGBEI、HUADONG、ZHONGNANHEXIBEIDIQUHUANBIFENBIESHANGSHENG5.92%、6.05%、6.35%HE6.12%。(JIANXIABIAO)

CSPIFENDIQUGANGCAIJIAGEZHISHUBIANHUAQINGKUANGBIAO

CSPI

2月末

1月末

指数

幅度(%

分地区指数

指数

指数

升降

本月

上月

华北地区

101.76

95.42

6.34

6.64

0.44

东北地区

103.38

97.6

5.78

5.92

0.69

华东地区

106.98

100.88

6.1

6.05

0.53

中南地区

109.4

102.87

6.53

6.35

-0.45

西南地区

107.92

101.94

5.98

5.87

1.01

西北地区

103.93

97.94

5.99

6.12

0.12

©2017.3 中钢协360彩票网

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360彩票网 ER、GUONEISHICHANGGANGCAIJIAGEBIANHUAYINSUFENXI


2YUEFEN,ZHUYAOYONGGANGXINGYEJIAOKUAIZENGZHANG。SHOUGUOJIAQUANMIANQUDI“DITIAOGANG”、JINGJINJIJIZHOUBIANDIQUHUANBAOCUOSHIYIJI“LIANGHUI”QIJIANDEXIANCHANCUOSHIDENGYINSUYINGXIANG,SHICHANGDUIHOUSHIYUQIYEMINGXIANZENGQIANG,QIEYUANRANCAILIAOJIAGEBAOCHIGAOWEI,GANGCAIJIAGEJIXUSHANGSHENG,QIESHENGFUYOUSUOJIADA。

1、YONGGANGXINGYEBAOCHIZENGZHANG,GANGCAIXUQIUJIAOWEIPINGWEN

JUGUOJIATONGJIJUSHUJU,1-2YUE,QUANGUOGUDINGZICHANTOUZI(BUHANNONGHU)TONGBIZENGZHANG8.9%,ZENGSUBIQUNIANQUANNIANTIGAO0.8GEBAIFENDIAN。QIZHONGJICHUSHESHITOUZIZENGZHANG27.3%,ZENGSUTIGAO9.9GEBAIFENDIAN;QUANGUOFANGDICHANKAIFATOUZITONGBIZENGZHANG8.9%,ZENGSUTIGAO2.0GEBAIFENDIAN。QIZHONGFANGWUXINKAIGONGMIANJIZENGZHANG10.4%,ZENGSUTIGAO2.3GEBAIFENDIAN;GUIMOYISHANGGONGYEZENGJIAZHITONGBIZENGZHANG6.3%,ZENGSUJIAOQUNIAN12YUEJIAKUAI0.3GEBAIFENDIAN,QIZHONG2YUEFENHUANBIZENGZHANG0.60%。ZHUYAOYONGGANGXINGYEZHONG,TONGYONGSHEBEIZHIZAOYE、ZHUANYONGSHEBEIZHIZAOYE、QICHEZHIZAOYE、TIELU\CHUANBO\HANGKONGHANGTIANHEQITAYUNSHUSHEBEIZHIZAOYE、DIANQIJIXIEHEQICAIZHIZAOYE、JISUANJI\TONGXINHEQITADIANZISHEBEIZHIZAOYE、DIANLI\RELISHENGCHANHEGONGYINGYEDENGZENGSUFENBIEJIAOSHANGNIAN12YUEJIAKUAI2.2、3.5、0.8、5.1、0.3、0.6HE1.0GEBAIFENDIAN;2YUEFEN,ZHIZAOYEPMIWEI51.6%,BISHANGYUESHANGSHENG0.3GEBAIFENDIAN,LIANXUDIQIGEYUEKUOZHANG。SHANGSHUSHUJUXIANSHIHONGGUANJINGJIFAZHANTAISHIJIXUGAISHAN,ZHENGTIYUNXINGYANXUWENZHONGXIANGHAOTAISHI,SHICHANGXUQIUBAOCHIPINGWEN。

2、CUGANGCHANLIANGXIAOFUZENGZHANG,GONGXUJIBENBAOCHIPINGWEN

360彩票网 JUGUOJIATONGJIJUSHUJU,1-2YUEFEN,QUANGUOSHENGTIE、CUGANGHEGANGCAI(HANZHONGFUCAI)CHANLIANGFENBIEWEI11354WANDUN、12877WANDUNHE16655WANDUN,FENBIETONGBIZENGZHANG5.6%、5.8%HE4.1%;PINGJUNRICHANCUGANG218.25WANDUN,BISHANGNIAN12YUEZENGZHANG0.65%。LINGJUHAIGUANTONGJI,1-2YUEFEN,QUANGUOCHUKOUGANGCAI1317WANDUN,TONGBIXIAJIANG25.7%;JINKOUGANGCAI218WANDUN,TONGBIZENGZHANG17.6%;JINGCHUKOUZHECUGANG1141WANDUN,TONGBIJIANSHAO506WANDUN,XIAJIANG30.8%。JUCIJISUAN,1-2YUEFENQUANGUOCUGANGBIAOGUANXIAOFEILIANG11736WANDUN,TONGBIZENGZHANG11.5%;RIJUNCUGANGGONGJILIANGWEI198.92WANDUN,BISHANGNIAN12YUEZENGZHANG2.2%,SHICHANGGONGXUJIBENBAOCHIPINGWEN。

3、YUANRANCAILIAOJIAGEGAOWEIBODONG,DUIGANGJIARENGYOUZHICHENGZUOYONG

360彩票网 JUGANGTIEXIEHUIJIANCE,2YUEMO,JIAOMEIJIAGEYOUSUOHUILUO,DANZHUYAOYUANRANCAILIAOJIAGERENGJUYUGAOWEI。CONGHUANBIQINGKUANGKAN,GUOCHANTIEJINGKUANGJIAGESHANGSHENG58YUAN/DUN,SHENGFUWEI8.77%,JINKOUTIEKUANGSHI(HAIGUAN)JIAGESHANGSHENG2.73MEIYUAN/DUN,SHENGFUWEI3.60%;FEIGANGJIAGESHANGSHENG104YUAN/DUN,SHENGFUWEI6.09%;LIANJIAOMEIHEYEJINJIAOJIAGEFENBIEXIAJIANG50YUAN/DUNHE209YUAN/DUN,JIANGFUFENBIEWEI3.30%HE10.86%。YUSHANGNIANTONGQIXIANGBI,GUOCHANKUANG、JINKOUKUANGJIAGEFENBIESHANGSHENG72.42%HE83.27%,FEIGANGJIAGESHANGSHENG64.79%,LIANJIAOMEIHEYEJINJIAOJIAGEFENBIESHANGSHENG135.15%HE157.51%。YUANRANCAILIAOJIAGEGAOWEIBODONG,DUIGANGJIARENGYOUZHICHENGZUOYONG。(JIANXIABIAO)

YUANRANCAILIAOSHICHANGJIAGEBIANHUAQINGKUANGBIAO

项目

单位

2月末

环比

同比

升幅

升幅%

升幅

升幅%

国产铁精粉

/

719

58

8.77

302

72.42

进口铁矿石(海关)

美元/

78.46

2.73

3.60

35.65

83.27

炼焦煤

/

1465

-50

-3.30

842

135.15

冶金焦

/

1715

-209

-10.86

1049

157.51

废 钢

/

1811

104

6.09

712

64.79

©2017.3 中钢协360彩票网

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360彩票网 SAN、GUOJISHICHANGGANGCAIJIAGEXIAOFUSHANGSHENG,HUANBISHENGFUSHOUZHAI

360彩票网 2YUE,CRUGUOJIGANGCAIZONGHEJIAGEZHISHUWEI166.2DIAN,HUANBISHANGSHENG2.4DIAN,SHENGFUWEI1.5%,JIAOSHANGYUEJIADA0.3GEBAIFENDIAN;YUSHANGNIANTONGQIXIANGBISHANGSHENG57.0DIAN,SHENGFUWEI52.2%。(JIANXIATU)

CRUGUOJIGANGCAIZONGHEJIAGEZHISHUZOUSHITU

CRUGUOJIGANGCAIJIAGEZHISHUBIANHUABIAO

项目

2

1

环比升降

升降幅%

上年同期

同比升降

升降幅%

钢材综合

166.2

163.8

2.4

1.5

109.2

57.0

52.2

长 材

163.3

158.2

5.1

3.2

118.4

44.9

37.9

板 材

167.7

166.8

0.9

0.5

104.6

63.1

60.3

北美市场

175.2

172.7

2.5

1.4

123.4

51.8

42.0

欧洲市场

187.8

184.5

3.3

1.8

120.6

67.2

55.7

亚洲市场

149.1

147.2

1.9

1.3

94.5

54.6

57.8

©2017.3 中钢协360彩票网

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360彩票网 1、ZHANG、BANCAIJIAGEJUNJIXUSHANGSHENG,ZHANGCAISHENGFUGAOYUBANCAI

360彩票网 2YUE,CRUZHANGCAIZHISHUWEI163.3DIAN,HUANBISHANGSHENG5.1DIAN,SHENGFUWEI3.2%;CRUBANCAIZHISHUWEI167.7DIAN,HUANBISHANGSHENG0.9DIAN,SHENGFUWEI0.5%,BIZHANGCAIJIAGESHENGFUDI2.7GEBAIFENDIAN;YUSHANGNIANTONGQIXIANGBI,ZHANGCAIZHISHUSHANGSHENG44.9DIAN,SHENGFUWEI37.9%;BANCAIZHISHUSHANGSHENG63.1DIAN,SHENGFUWEI60.3%。(JIANXIATU)

CRUGUOJIZHANGCAIHEBANCAIJIAGEZHISHUZOUSHITU


2、BEIMEISHENGFUSHOUZHAI、OUZHOUSHENGFUJIADA、YAZHOUYOUJIANGZHUANSHENG

360彩票网 (1)BEIMEISHICHANG

2YUE,CRUBEIMEIGANGCAIJIAGEZHISHUWEI175.2DIAN,HUANBISHANGSHENG2.5DIAN,SHENGFUWEI1.4%,JIAOSHANGYUESHOUZHAI2.1GEBAIFENDIAN。2YUEFEN,MEIGUOZHIZAOYEPMIWEI57.7%,HUANBISHANGSHENG1.7GEBAIFENDIAN,QIZHONGXINDINGDANZHISHUSHANGSHENG4.7GEBAIFENDIAN,KEHUKUCUNZHISHUXIAJIANG1.0GEBAIFENDIAN;2YUEMO,MEIGUOCUGANGCHANNENGLIYONGLV74.7%,HUANBISHANGSHENG2.0GEBAIFENDIAN,TONGBISHANGSHENG1.6GEBAIFENDIAN。BENYUEMEIGUOZHONGXIBUGANGCHANGGANGCAIJIAGEJIXUSHANGSHENG。QIZHONGSHOUQIANQIFEIGANGJIAGESHANGZHANGYINGXIANG,ZHANGCAIZHANGFUYOUWEIMINGXIAN。(JIANXIABIAO)

MEIGUOZHONGXIBUGANGCHANGGANGCAICHUCHANGJIAGEBIANHUAQINGKUANGBIAO(DANWEI:MEIYUAN/DUN)

项目

2月份

1月份

环比上升

环比升幅%

本月

上月

钢筋

671

634

37

5.84

3.76

小型材

692

692

0

0.00

1.76

线材

717

628

89

14.17

8.28

型钢

779

774

5

0.65

5.31

中厚板

751

674

77

11.42

8.36

热轧带卷

679

673

6

0.89

4.83

冷轧带卷

913

909

4

0.44

3.53

热浸镀锌

995

988

7

0.71

3.56

©2017.3 中钢协

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360彩票网 (2)OUZHOUSHICHANG

2YUE,CRUOUZHOUGANGCAIJIAGEZHISHUWEI187.8DIAN,HUANBISHANGSHENG3.3DIAN,SHENGFUWEI1.8%,JIAOSHANGYUEJIADA0.2GEBAIFENDIAN。2YUEFEN,OUYUANQUZHIZAOYEPMIWEI51.2%,HUANBIXIAJIANG4.0GEBAIFENDIAN。QIZHONG,DEGUOZHIZAOYEPMIWEI50.5%,HUANBIXIAJIANG5.9GEBAIFENDIAN;FAGUOZHIZAOYEPMIWEI50.2%,53.6%,HUANBIXIAJIANG3.4GEBAIFENDIAN;XIBANYAZHIZAOYEPMIWEI54.8%,HUANBIXIAJIANG0.8GEBAIFENDIAN;YIDALIPMIWEI52.2%,HUANBIXIAJIANG0.8GEBAIFENDIAN。CONGZONGTIKAN,OUYUANQUZHIZAOYERENGBAOCHIZAIKUOZHANGQUJIAN。BENYUEDEGUOSHICHANGXINGGANGHEREJINDUXINGANGCAIJIAGEYOUJIANGZHUANSHENG,QITAPINZHONGJIAGEJIXUSHANGSHENG。(JIANXIABIAO)

DEGUOSHICHANGGANGCAIJIAGEBIANHUAQINGKUANG(DANWEI:MEIYUAN/DUN)

项目

2月份

1月份

环比上升

环比升幅%

本月

上月

钢筋

530

514

16

3.11

0.98

小型材

539

515

24

4.66

1.18

线材

518

503

15

2.98

1.00

型钢

684

645

39

6.05

-1.83

中厚板

612

579

33

5.70

1.22

热轧带卷

596

581

15

2.58

2.65

冷轧带卷

706

690

16

2.32

1.32

热浸镀锌

743

723

20

2.77

-0.41

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(3)YAZHOUSHICHANG

2YUE,CRUYAZHOUGANGCAIJIAGEZHISHUWEI149.1DIAN,HUANBISHANGSHENG1.9DIAN,SHENGFUWEI1.3%,HUANBIYOUJIANGZHUANSHENG。1YUEFEN,RIBENZHIZAOYEPMIWEI53.3%,HUANBISHANGSHENG0.6GEBAIFENDIAN;HANGUOZHIZAOYEPMIWEI49.2%,HUANBISHANGSHENG0.2GEBAIFENDIAN;ZHONGGUOZENGZHANGPMIWEI51.6%,HUANBISHANGSHENG0.3GEBAIFENDIAN。BENYUEYUANDONGSHICHANGZHONGHOUBAN、REYADAIJUANHEREJINDUXINJIAGEYOUJIANGZHUANSHENG,XINGGANG、REYADAIJUANHELENGYADAIJUANJIAGEBAOCHIPINGWEN,XIAOXINGCAIJIAGEYOUPINGZHUANSHENG,GANGJIN、XIANCAIJIAGESHENGFUJIADA。(JIANXIABIAO)

360彩票网 YUANDONGSHICHANGGANGCAIDAOANJIAGEBIANHUAQINGKUANGBIAO(DANWEI:MEIYUAN/DUN)

项目

2月份

1月份

环比上升

环比升幅%

本月

上月

钢 筋

432

418

14

3.35

0.72

小型材

520

514

6

1.17

0.00

线 材

437

424

13

3.07

1.92

型 钢

525

525

0

0.00

0.00

中厚板

490

465

25

5.38

-5.10

热轧带卷

510

510

0

0.00

-2.11

冷轧带卷

590

590

0

0.00

0.00

热浸镀锌

620

619

1

0.16

-0.16

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SI、HOUQIGANGCAISHICHANGJIAGEZOUSHIFENXI

360彩票网 SUIZHETIANQIZHUJIANZHUANNUAN,SHICHANGJIANGJINRUGANGCAIXIAOFEIWANGJI,DANSHICHANGGONGDAYUQIUJUMIANWEIYOUGAIGUAN。HOUQISHOUGANGTIECHANNENGHEGANGCAIKUCUNSHIFANG、YIJIYUANRANCAILIAOJIAGEHUILUODENGYINSUYINGXIANG,GANGJIANANYIDAFUSHANGZHANG,JIANGCHENGBODONGYUNXINGTAISHI。

1、HONGGUANJINGJIPINGWENFAZHAN,GANGCAIXUQIUBAOCHIPINGWEN

LIKEQIANGZONGLI3YUE5RIZAISHIERJIERENDAWUCIHUIYISHANG《ZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAO》ZHONGQIANGDIAO,2017NIANGUOJIACAIZHENGZHENGCEYAOGENGJIAJIJIYOUXIAO,HUOBIZHENGCEBAOCHIWENJIANZHONGXING,JIANGZONGHEYUNYONGHUOBIZHENGCEGONGJU,CUJINJINRONGZIYUANGENGDUOLIUXIANGSHITIJINGJI;JIJIKUODAYOUXIAOTOUZI,YAOWANCHENGTIELUJIANSHETOUZI8000YIYUAN、GONGLUSHUIYUNTOUZI1.8WANYIYUAN;KAIGONG15XIANGZHONGDASHUILIGONGCHENG,JIAQIANGGUIDAOJIAOTONG、MINYONGHANGKONG、DIANXINJICHUSHESHIDENGZHONGDAXIANGMUJIANSHE;TUIJINXINXINGCHENGZHENHUA,TONGCHOUCHENGSHIDISHANGDIXIAJIANSHE,ZAIKAIGONGJIANSHECHENGSHIDIXIAZONGHEGUANLANG2000GONGLIYISHANG,TUIJINHAIMIANCHENGSHIJIANSHE;JIAQIANGNONGCUNGONGGONGSHESHIJIANSHE。XINJIANGAIJIANNONGCUNGONGLU20WANGONGLIDENG。HOUQISHICHANGGANGCAIXUQIUYOUWANGBAOCHIPINGWENFAZHANTAISHI。

360彩票网 2、GANGTIEQUCHANNENGCHIXUTUIJIN,GONGXUMAODUNDUANQINEINANYIHUANJIE

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360彩票网 QUANGUOZHUYAOSHICHANGGANGCAISHEHUIKUCUNLIANGBIANHUAQINGKUANGBIAO

时间

库存(万吨)

比上年末增减

比上年末%

比上月增减

月环比%

上年同期

同比增减

同比%

上年末

947

85

9.84

95

11.19

862

85

9.84

1月末

1104

157

16.60

157

16.60

911

193

21.15

2月第一周

1348

402

42.40

244

22.13

(春节)

第二周

1579

632

66.73

475

42.99

1079

500

46.38

第三周

1655

708

74.74

551

49.86

1205

449

37.28

第四周

1645

698

73.67

540

48.95

1263

382

30.25

3月第一周

1603

656

69.26

-42

-2.54

1268

335

26.41

第二周

1541

594

62.77

-103

-6.28

1222

319

26.12

©2017.3 中钢协

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YISHIYINGQUANMIANFENXISHICHANGGONGXUXINGSHI,BAOCHIGANGJIAPINGWENYUNXING。2017NIANGUOJIAJIANGJIXUTUIJINQUCHANNENGGONGZUO,QUANMIANQUDI“DITIAOGANG”YOULIYUSHICHANGGONGXUPINGHENG。QINGCHU“DITIAOGANG”TENGCHUDESHICHANGKONGJIAN,YOUSHIQIYEKEYIMIBU,CHANNENGGUOSHENGJUMIANWEIYOUGENBENGAIGUAN,GANGCAIJIAGEQUEFACHIXUDAFUSHANGZHANGDEJICHU。GANGTIEQIYEYINGQUANMIANFENXISHICHANGGONGXUXINGSHI,BAOCHIGANGJIAPINGWENYUNXING。

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受隔夜美元弱势及人民币兑美元中间价继续上调刺激,81日在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中均升破6.72关口。分析人士表示,鉴于美国温和通胀及政治不确定性仍打压美元指数,年内人民币兑美元汇率仍有升值空间,但表现或不如上半年强势。

人民币升破6.72

731日,美元指数继续下探,最低一度至92.7775,再创15个月新低。81日,国际市场亚洲交易时段,美元指数小幅走软后震荡回升,但仍相当接近15个月低点,因投资者进一步押注美国政治风险将影响美联储年内继续升息的前景。进入欧洲时段,美元指数延续持稳走势,截至北京时间17:30,报92.9199,较前收盘价涨0.11%

81日,人民币兑美元汇率中间价设于6.7148元,为去年1012日以来新高,较上一交易日上调135个基点,为连续第二日上调。“推动近日人民币兑美元中间价大幅上涨的因素源自中美债券收益率利差的变动。”国泰君安期货研究员王洋表示,人民币汇率中间价形成机制中“逆周期调节因子”在美元连续走弱的背景下发挥作用,亦导致人民币汇率中间价出现上行。

市场汇率方面,昨日在岸人民币兑美元即期汇率早盘追随中间价上行,最高上摸至6.7154,续创20161013日以来新高,16:30收报6.7194,较前收盘价升值96个基点,为去年1013日以来首次升破6.72关口。香港市场上,离岸人民币兑美元一度升破6.72,最高上摸至6.7163,创20161012日以来新高,随后涨幅有所收窄,截至北京时间16:306.7236.

后市仍趋升值

对于后市,有外汇交易员表示,近期美元指数跌速过快,后续可能出现技术性反弹,但从目前来看,美国通胀形势温和及政治不确定性仍将持续困扰美元,欧元的强势表现也增添了美元指数的下行压力,如果后续美元基本面仍缺乏实质性利好,美元可能很难出现像样的反弹行情,而对我国的持汇机构而言,美元指数反弹将是逢高结汇的时机。从全年来看,人民币重现年度升值将是大概率事件。

王洋则表示,往后看,在9月份议息会议上,美联储或宣布“启动缩表”并透露下一次加息的时间点,经历了持续多月的颓势之后,届时美元指数将有望在美联储“鹰派”观点强化的基础上出现一定空间的反弹。对于人民币汇率来说,基于中美两国货币政策的差异,人民币汇率表现或不如上半年那般强势,且需提防美元指数“触底回升”带来汇率反杀。不过,人民币贬值预期已明显下降,再现大幅贬值可能性极小。


(XINXILAIYUANYUWANGLUO)

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